|Tornado warned mini-sup on the warm front just SW of Jackson, TN. A funnel cloud has been reported near Medon at 3:21. Very dangerous storm, seek shelter immediately! Storm moving NE at 45 mph.|
Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to be in progress over Central Arkansas. A QLCS looks to be the preferred mode with embedded supercells capable of producing mainly destructive winds. So far the confidence in a tornado with any of these storms isn't very high. As said earlier, these storms continue to move into a favorable environment. Meanwhile the mini supercell in Tennessee has dissipated and no longer poses an immediate threat. In my target area (SE AR and NW MS) there continues to be a Cu field in the area, but blow off from the QLCS to the west may put a nail in that coffin. IF a storm can get going in that area, it will utilize the 1500+ CAPE and quickly become supercellular. If supercells form in this area, SRH values in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 would certainly promote the risk for tornadoes (some strong.) Right now if I had actually chased I would probably still be sitting in my target area twiddling my thumbs. 22z has came and passed.
|*Storms are firing in E OK. This one in particular is getting a supercellular shape to it. These storms have to be directly on the cold front or very near it.|