Chase Forecasts/Nowcasts

Here you will find forecasts and local events that I have either written, experienced, or contributed to. I tried to interject my thoughts and commentary where I felt was needed and tried to break things down for all of you. I will continuously add to this list so you can go back and re-read anything you desire to!

January 31st, 2011 - Snowpocalypse Forecast
"Before we take a look at the forecast, here is what we have going on so far in regards to the major event which is in its early stages of development as we speak"

February 1st, 2011 - Chicago Blizzard
"Pretty insane event going to be taking place in my neighborhood. Will be streaming LIVE all night.... any questions or comments leave them below!"

February 24th, 2011 - Severe Weather Outbreak in the South
"Catching up on the event midway through it...... So far a squall line is moving through Central Arkansas stretching southwestward into Northeast Texas. I had originally forecast a target of Pine Bluff, AR, with the possibility of supercells developing along an E-W line of Pine Bluff to Oxford. I am a little surprised that we don't have a few supercells in SE AR right now. Good instability with good shear. Now it appears the shear is moving farther to the north, but with instability continuing to mount and a 50kt+ LLJ kicking in later we should be in business with some semi-discrete supercells."

February 27th, 2011 - Severe Weather Outbreak in the Plains
"A pretty impressive set up in a less than impressive area. Storms were expected to develop in three areas today.... near the triple point, along the warm front, and a long an upper level impulse, with a conditional threat of storms blowing up down the dry line toward the Red River."

April 2nd, 2011 - Chase Forecast for Iowa Chase on 4/3 
"Severe weather will probably happen at some point across the Central Plains into the Mid MS River Valley. A pretty dynamic and fast moving system is on our hands. With each model run the CF has sped up and splitting hairs on whether Sunday or Monday will be the day. Sunday's set up has been looking absolutely yummy except for one glaring issue. The CAP/EML/Inversion *insert term here*. The Lid Strength Index has areas in the warm sector in the 3-4 range. As a rule of thumb I go by, 0 - No Cap, 3 - Strong Cap, 5 - GOOD LUCK! Most of the area have been in the 2-3 range with hints of a hole opening up before filling back in at night. The 0z NAM has a big hole of 0 to -1 LSI opening up right over Burlington, IA. Low-level instability is pretty robust as well. The low-level lapse rates could be better, but we aren't asking for the perfect set up.... or are we?"

April 3rd, 2011 - LIVE Chase Update from I-80
"Got off work early (THANKFULLY) and was now able to chase today! Was gonna be at the fire house until 6 P.M. but ended up getting out earlier. So 2011's first chase is now underway with Adam Lucifer and Matt Cumberland. We are currently on I 80 near Ottawa, IL heading toward the west to a more favorable area. At this point it is a tough call, I really want to stick to my target of Donnellson, IA, but am getting baited into the idea that we should just follow the warm front into oblivion."

April 8th, 2011 - Chase Forecast for 4/9 IL/IA 
"Very interesting couple of days on tap for the area. When I say things will be interesting that won't bode well for those who like sunny warm weather. Tomorrow may be one of those days where I get a sun tan, but could also be one of those days where Iowa likes to lure unsuspecting chasers away from Illinois magic."